A recent study highlights that Germany can only maintain its economic prosperity through immigration. Without it, the labor market faces a significant collapse. The study predicts that approximately 288,000 international workers will be needed annually until 2040 to meet the demand for labor and secure Germany’s economic future.
Commissioned by the Bertelsmann Foundation, the analysis emphasizes that the German labor market will depend heavily on immigrants from third countries to meet future demands. The study projects that without additional migrants, the workforce will decline from 46.4 million to 41.9 million by 2040, and by 2060, it would diminish by a quarter to just 35 million if no additional immigrants are integrated.
Expert Insights: Major Challenges Ahead
Susanne Schultz, a migration expert at the Bertelsmann Foundation, notes that demographic changes, including the retirement of the baby boomer generation, pose significant challenges to the German labor market. While developing domestic labor potential and increasing labor market participation are crucial, these efforts alone will not suffice to meet the demand up to 2040.
The reformed Skilled Immigration Act offers new opportunities for workers interested in Germany, but it requires a strong welcoming culture in authorities, companies, and municipalities, along with long-term prospects for staying.
The Bertelsmann Foundation
Established in 1977 by Reinhard Mohn, the Bertelsmann Foundation is a leading organization in collecting and analyzing data, making recommendations for action to the public and decision-makers. The foundation works operationally, initiating its own projects without supporting third-party work, and is committed to political neutrality.
Regional Variations
The study reveals that different federal states will be affected varyingly by a lack of immigration by 2040. Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt, and Saarland are expected to experience particularly strong declines in workforce, exceeding 10%. In contrast, Hamburg, Berlin, and Brandenburg will see less pronounced impacts, with figures below 10%.
Furthermore, the need for immigration in each state depends on the projected workforce requirements by 2040. States with significant structural increases in workforce by 2040, such as Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Hesse, Berlin, and Hamburg, will need more international workers.
The study was conducted by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) and the Coburg University of Applied Sciences, using a projection of labor demand by the IAB and the Federal Institute for Vocational Training.
FAQ’s
1. Why does Germany need more immigration?
Germany needs more immigration to maintain its economic prosperity. The labor market faces a significant collapse without it, as the retirement of the baby boomer generation and demographic changes lead to a decline in the workforce. Immigrants are essential to fill this gap and meet future labor demands.
2. How many international workers will Germany need by 2040?
According to the study, Germany will need approximately 288,000 international workers every year until 2040 to meet the demand for labor and secure its economic future.
3. What will happen if Germany does not increase immigration?
If Germany does not increase immigration, the workforce is projected to decline from 46.4 million to 41.9 million by 2040. By 2060, the workforce could diminish by a quarter to just 35 million if no additional immigrants are integrated.
4. How will the lack of immigration affect different federal states in Germany?
The study reveals that different federal states will be affected varyingly by a lack of immigration by 2040. Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt, and Saarland are expected to experience particularly strong declines in workforce, exceeding 10%. In contrast, Hamburg, Berlin, and Brandenburg will see less pronounced impacts, with figures below 10%.